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•NY-13: With a month to go until New York's federal primaries, Siena finds Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel leading state Sen. Adriano Espaillat 41-32 in his fight for renomination, with clergyman Michael Walrond taking 6 and unknown activist Yolanda Garcia at 5. At first glance, numbers like these suggest that Rangel could get saved by the clown-car effect, where multiple candidates split the anti-incumbent vote, allowing the incumbent to scrape by with a plurality.
However, 16 percent of voters are still undecided, so things are still very much up for grabs, particularly since Espaillat remains unknown to over 40 percent of likely primary voters. With heavy-hitting unions backing him, he won't have a problem expanding his name recognition. On top of that, even in a multi-way race, it's a warning sign that the well-known Rangel is almost exactly at his actual 2012 vote share (44 percent), suggesting he may have a low ceiling.
And all that is if Siena's right—they may well not be. Siena's track record is really not that great, and in one primary poll last year, they missed the mark by over 50 net points, the worst polling miss we've ever seen. So skepticism is definitely warranted here.
